Elections : Into the Snapcount

snapcount

DOWN TO THE ELEVENTH HOUR Last week I promised several of you a last read on the elections before we go into opinion poll radio silence during this last week - I will give you where we are according to the polls, of which there have many less than we have become accustomed to perhaps due to the recent failures, what I think will transpire and a hand on heart opinion on what is best for the country longer term. It also important to remember that this is only the first round and we will have another three weeks after that for the two top to make their arguments - I am fully discounting a knock out 50%+1 on May 27th.

POLLS We had our final polls published over the weekend and as ever Semana magazine got the last work in - whilst it is hard to believe in any poll after the Plebiscite debacle they do seem to be slightly more neutral than most and in depth, they have also established have a track record over the past year looking at the situation. Let us start with a little children's game - can you spot in this poll published in May 2017 who is missing from the line-up ?

Yes everyone Ivan Duque, the front runner for the past few months is nowhere to be seen, his various opponents he vanquished to become the Centro Democratic candidate (Martha Lucia, Sergio Ramos, & Alejandro Ordonez) are all there but not Duque, he appears to have timed his run to perfection looking at the polls from this weekend but it should be noted that (apart from the obvious opinion poll caveat) his numbers, as well as that of Petro, have stagnated,

Also from the polls (of which in the end there is only one that counts in a few days time) we cannot avoid the total under performance of German Vargas Lleras, a man who 12 months ago was the hot favourite, with an enormous political machine ready to swing into action - it is hard to nail down exactly what has gone wrong but the political capital he gained as Vice President, which included inaugurated numerous infrastructure and construction projects, has faded away - it is though hard to see him polling just 6.6% but we will get to that shortly. The other story to the downside is Humberto de la Calle, not because he penned the peace agreement, that may have been a poisoned chalice, but because he is the official candidate of the Liberal Party and that is an electioneering machine of science fiction proportions historically - again it simply hasn't happened for him.

OUTCOME I think that by far the most likely outcome is that we finish in the same order as the most recent poll but that that the field will be more bunched than the above numbers suggest, I refuse to believe Vargas Lleras will poll just 6.6% and that will likely mean he carves votes out of Duque as their supporters have comparable DNA. That immediately would tighten things up however unless there is a major shock Duque will make the second round - in all likelihood with Petro. The only potential seismic shock which could happen and it is a 100/1 shot at this point is that Fajardo overhauls Petro for second place - he is the only candidate with upward momentum over the past couple of weeks and whilst still 13% behind Petro it is in reality a 6.5% swing as they are fighting in large part for the same supporters. One factor in the polls are those looking at the second round options - Petro loses to everybody and by a decent margin, however Fajardo is seen by the pollsters as an even shot or better to defeat Duque. But the key player here is not Petro, Fajardo or even Duque, it is ex-President Uribe who has become nothing less than hate figure for those on the left - if enough of Petro's supporters only motivation is to stop a return of the Uribistas then tactical voting could be the consequence with Fajardo being their best option, it is however getting very late in the game for that. ROUND TWO

So if we do get the expected Duque v's Petro run-off on June 17th what is the likely outcome - well in reality it is a very-likely outcome and that would be a Duque victory, the force of the left/centre do in all likelihood outnumber those of the right but Gustavo Petro is not the man to lead them and keeping that particular train on the track will be very tough indeed - it would be a straight fight between two of the highest disapproval levels in the country, those of Gustavo Petro and Alvaro Uribe - that is not a slur in any way on Ivan Duque but the political reality here in Colombia. It will be interesting to see what those vanquished in Round 1 decide to say post defeat - Vargas Lleras will slip into the Duque alliance in all probability however Fajardo & De La Calle may perhaps guard their countenance, De La Calle's Liberal party however will likely follow Vargas Lleras to the right.

Fajardo in particular could be sat on the key swing vote but those inside the campaign expect him to allow a free vote come the second round - anecdotally having sat around chatting with his supporters there is a split but if I was a betting man I would say 15% for Petro & 35% for Duque, the rest will either stay in bed or spoil their ballot papers. HAND ON HEART This has been a nasty election campaign, there is a lot of hatred and fear with both sides having played on those emotions - there are serious reasons to not vote for Petro but likewise Duque and that is the key problem in Colombia. Colombia for all its progress remains in reality two countries with the 'haves' & the 'have-nots' - a country where despite huge improvements the poverty level stands at 26.9% & extreme poverty at 7.4% - that is a total of 17.15 million people and trust me that is a low threshold, you can comfortably double that number in terms of those who have few or no opportunities in life. If we look at Colombia's 'Estrato' system which divides the country into 6 social-economic groups we find fully 50% in the lowest two groups (1 & 2) as well as a further 35% in 3 & 4 - for the 99% of people reading this who do or would reside in Estrato 6 if they lived here "welcome to the 4.92%", again things have improved but the 2017 GINI coefficient of 0.508 speaks volumes - only a poor Honduran feels worse in the Americans. So that is the rub, the vast majority of the people in Colombia need help and Petro as well as Fajardo's coalition have found an audience for the first time - in 2014 the run-off was right versus extreme right - but on the other side of the debate there are those who want to retain the status quo as well as international confidence in the markets, both sides have their points which as valid. That is why to me, it now more a hope than anything else, Sergio Fajardo is the man for the job, the man to bring a more inclusive society and avoid a move to the hard left in 2022, he polls higher than all the candidates in the wealthiest estratos and also has the common touch with the man in the street looking for a new way - a third way if you like. Whilst I know him well it is more an affinity for what he represents as opposed to his personality, the country needs to find middle ground - sadly instead we are likely in for a very bruising four years - the left have found their feet and will be hounding Duque from day one if there aren't reforms or if he allows Congress to get bogged down in reforming the peace agreement. If things don't go well then by 2022 the hard left will likely be scratching at the door like a new puppy who doesn't understand the concept of sleeping alone - and as with most puppies they get their way. In recent history we had very bitter Brexit and US Presidential campaigns both won by the extreme end of the spectrum - now long after those two seismic events the fighting has continued, the discourse remains vitriolic and the respective countries even more divided, sadly that will likely be the situation between 2018-22 even though the economy is improving and big business should be in decent shape. Lets see where we are in 7 days time.........