Ivan through the Looking Glass

Back in June after Ivan Duque had turned a 39% first round result into a second round victory largely due to the inelectability of Gustavo Petro, I made the simple observation that given the economic sweet-spot the country was in, as long as he avoided following white rabbits and disappearing down any holes Duque would at least have a shot at carrying out the reforms that would keep the country out of the hands of left come 2022. Now just over 7 months into his administration now President Duque has done exactly that, he has become distracted by the peace agreement and is now wandering around with Alice, the Cheshire cat and the rest of the cast looking to find his way back to the real world.

Last week Duque publicly objected to 6 elements of the JEP (Truth and Justice Commission), not just his view but those of the CD party who, as part of their manifesto, stated they would look for changes, the President said that he would seek Congressional support to make alterations. What is most surprising is that given the lack of Congressional support on most anything thus far Duque somehow thought he was going to find a consensus on such a polemic matter, especially as the JEP is already going about its work. Having mismanaged and misjudged a tax reform that will be in negative equity by 2020 with the same Congress having dissected it piece by piece and then having other reforms kicked down the road into 2020 it is hard to see why Duque’s advisors let him go ahead with such a strategy. Perhaps they have an eye on October’s municipal elections where the CD are likely to be fighting a rear-guard action as the country slips slowly but inevitably to the left, the GINI coefficient and demographics dictate that once enough of the population wake up to the situation they will vote differently than in previous years, by adopting such a radical stance the party of Alvaro Uribe are appealing to their base in much the same way as Donald Trump does on such a regular basis, the JEP is Colombia’s Mexican border wall. Overnight there were street protests against Duque's declaration and again he appears to be out of touch with much of the country, the peace agreement was far from perfect, they never are, but it is good enough for the majority who simply want to move forward. The protestors were joined by the students who continue to push for Duque to deliver on his promise to increase funding to the public universities - as stated before therein lies the President's opportunity to leave a legacy, be the man to bring educational democracy to the masses

Venezuela clearly continues to dominate the headlines, although to a lesser extent of late, and hopefully there will be a new name above the Presidential door before too long however one is still struck by the fact that the elite of Colombia don’t see the parallels with the neighbouring country. Chavez and Maduro would never have been part of world history if the elite hadn’t simply taken all they could carry over the preceding decades – the Colombian elite have carried out a very similar exercise meaning that it has the worst GINI coefficient in the Americas except Honduras, not exactly company you want to be keeping. Economically the country is moving along nicely and will likely do so throughout the next couple of years however at some point it will need some extra impulsion from reforms (education, health and pension systems are amongst those that need legislation but that will require work) or investment, all of which will need a political consensus in Congress – unfortunately meddling with a peace agreement that has cross party support and in which foreign entities have invested $100’s millions is not going to help get the job done. This week’s Economist sums it up as well as anyone can: “Bashing the tribunal is a way for Mr Duque to boost his own popularity, which plunged last year after he proposed an increase in value-added tax, though it has since recovered.

The success of his gambit now depends on congress and the constitutional court. Congress could override Mr Duque’s objections, forcing him to sign the law. That would be a humiliation. Even if congress passes a modified law, the constitutional court is likely to strike it down. That would be a better result for Mr Duque. The court would take up to a year to rule.”

This is threatening to become a legislative log-jam and already Duque is up against the clock due to Colombian regulation – he has already completed 15% of his Presidency with no tangible results and whilst it is a four year period during the last 12 months under local electoral law new projects are very much restricted. If Duque is to be successful in waking up back on the riverbank ready for tea with the family he needs to rapidly prioritize the long term economic future of the country over that of playing with a peace agreement which under any which reform will not a add a Peso to the pocket of the average Colombian and add nothing to the long term prosperity of the country - better to concentrate on the 10,000's of armed insurgents still roaming the countryside as opposed to the 1000's who have laid down their weapons.

Rupert James Stebbings Colombiabyroops@gmail.com +57 313 888 2874