A Trip To The Dentist

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THE TEMPORARY FILLING

The picture above could be basically anywhere in Colombia on any given day, this happened to be this past Tuesday in Caceres and was the cause of major road disruption. It could just as easily be on the way to my countryside hideout which is some 60km outside of Medellin where on route you can see 10, 20 or 30 examples of such issues, in short Colombia's infrastructure is rotting away and the reasons are the same as those that can be found each time you lean back in the big chair and the dentist comes out with the dreaded 'open wide'. Perhaps it is the UK thing with our famous gnashers or perhaps more global but how many times do we settle for the patch-up job as there isn't time or the cheaper option when surgery would be much more costly. The net results are the same, the temporary filling that drops out at an awkward moment on holiday or a far more expensive surgery further down the road after the pain gets to be too much - Colombia has a purpose phrase build phrase "The lazy person works double". That is the root (no pun intended) cause of Colombia's infrastructure issues, too many Government's both national and regional combined with short-termism, corruption and a lack of money. Patch-up jobs are everywhere - I have literally driven past work crews with the wife as they fixed a secondary highway and had the 'how long do you think that will last conversation' - Lo & Behold they are back as few months pouring more money into the same hole. That is why 4G matters so much and whilst investors far and wide have grown increasingly frustrated by the progress they need to have patience and understand the backdrop of what President Santos in conjunction with the ANI have achieved. The 4G plan was put into place which would stretch over several Presidential terms ending short-termism and above all there were to be no more up front payments, it would be pay as you go - on top of that PPPs became legal and that started another mini boom. Andrade himself is currently being investigated as part of the Odebrecht scandal however given the circumstances of his detention there are few who believe he is anything except collateral damage and that soon enough he should be back contributing to Colombia's growth. The 4G project are the root canals, the crowns and implants that the country needs - throwing aggregates on top of a hole that needs foundations, cement and asphalt is simply pushing the problem down the road which effectively means to the next administration and that is exactly what has happened for several decades. Whilst there is some concern at the speed of progress I think it needs to be carefully placed in context : 1. Nothing like this has been attempted before and there is an unquestionable learning process - they say there is nothing like learning on the job.

2. Odebrecht froze the project for months on end and affected confidence amongst all of those involved who feared that we were falling back into the old ways.

3. Versus historical precedents the projects are more or less on time, no-one expected this to be on time just like the same people said the funding would not appear.

4. This is not the low countries, the projects are complicated - bridges and tunnels will dominates costs but also lead to challenges which whilst having been conquered before in Colombia have never been attempted on such scale. Turning to the funding the FDN who are at the very center of financing are happy with progress and expect billions more to come in during the course of 2018, in terms of scope the 4G program is currently USD19bn in magnitude with USD5.8bn (40%) of financing in place - it is worth remembering that not all the money is required at this point, there is little point paying for steel rods you need in 2022 at this juncture. 4G will also bring social change, it will bring rural markets closer to the cities, lower costs and also drive exports as the country becomes more competitive, and all the time help to bring institutionality to areas of the country that are currently isolated which leaves a power vacuum in which illegals groups are happy to operate.

I myself am not a purveyor of the greatest teeth but hopefully they will still be there for a few more decades as opposed to sat in a glass on my bedside table - but Colombia needs more than a few decades, it needs generations of usage out of the highways that will be criss-crossing the country.