Colombian Update : Hanging Out With The Farmers......Agrofuturo 2018

EXHIBITION TIME

Last week I found myself strolling around Agrofuturo in Bogotá and as a person who has been harping on about the need for Colombia to look to the countryside in order to help healthy long term growth it was encouraging to see the enthusiasm of the many companies visiting from overseas as well as the hunger for knowledge from those here in the host country. In 2017 when the event was held in Medellin 30 countries were represented and once again it looked like a Risk map with all continents present, the expectation is that the 20,000 visitors and USD317mn in sales of 2017 will both be bettered due to the location. As per most exhibitions there all manner of products represented, the mechanical cow caught my eye, but innovation and the technology were particularly visible which is precisely as it should be in a country where an almost complete renovation of the countryside is required. Farmers have been raising the same crops or livestock for generations without really stopping to think if they are getting the nest economic return on their land. Colombia is beyond famous for having the finest coffee in the world but there is surely so much more that could be exported en masse apart from coffee - I spoke to the largest global shipper of Colombian goods (CMA CGM) and they made mention of avocados and a few other fruits but overall it is only the guacamole ingredient making waves. In Colombia whilst lip service has been paid to agricultural reform there has been little advancement over the last decade and at a time when the World Bank remains highly concerned about the ongoing advancement of urbanization globally Colombia, which is up to 77% in that regard, has the opportunity to turn back the clock and return at least some of their conflict refugees to the countryside. The World Bank states urbanization can help drive economic growth but only if accompanied by the correct urban planning, patently, looking at the shanty towns on the hillsides of Bogotá and Medellín, this hasn’t occurred. AN EXAMPLE TO FOLLOW ? Of course all this requires commitment from all those involved and I spent time speaking to a company who have been working with post Mugabe Zimbabwe to explore the opportunities and it has been all about education and applying the recent advancements in technology. Zimbabwe imports around USD110 mn of wheat per Annam, a totally unnecessary practice in such a fertile land but the practice has been going on for so long that no-one ever stopped to question the system. That is set to change, wheat will become cheaper, land values increase, there are profits and the social benefits of increase employment - it simply isn’t rocket science. If we take a glance at Colombia thus far in 2018 it has imported USD997mn of wheat products, USD266mn of fruit & legumes and USD177mn of meat products, those are large numbers and whilst no country has a climate for everything (Colombia’s lack of a cold winter means many fruits won’t work here) it seems to be a number that needs a little Zimbabwe treatment. Meat jumps out at me bearing in mind the once enormous levels of exports to Venezuela which no longer exist, perhaps these are processed or exotic wars but nonetheless as with all these imported goods surely it is worthy of closer examination. One big difference of course between the two countries is that Zimbabwe during the Mugabe years underwent some sizeable land distribution which was ugly to watch as white farmers were driven out and whilst such violent methods will never be the way to run a country the side-effect is that it is easier to carry out reforms as it is an inclusive situation, in Colombia the situation is far removed from that. The vast, vast majority of Colombian agricultural land lies unused a consequence of the fact that 81% of the rural land is in the hands of 1% of the population (Oxfam) and that which is being used is being badly exploited - crop rotation, fallow periods and other such concepts are a rarity and cattle are turned out into the fields with little thought to the exact ratio of acres per head, well planned, long term change is required to turn the Colombian countryside into the economic and social motor it should be. INCLUSION The planning stage is key, as one expert explained it is the same as building a house, decide what you want, undertake a feasibility study and then design it, the build starts at the foundations. In agricultural terms that involves a big data study, soil sampling, regional climate studies - perhaps crops are growing in Colombia that aren’t the most profitable whilst others have never been tried, it all needs to be stripped back to the bare bones. The process needs to be all inclusive. Large wealthy land owners also need to be educated as to the value of developing their land, an example of this from the UK was described to me. French wine producers have been looking to extend their vineyards and Southern England is an ideal location (yes I was equally surprised) however those land owners needed convincing with regards to the investment after years of doing nothing with the land however the upside is there and eventually they bought into the idea - such situation are surely abundant in Colombia. The poorer elements of society also need to be included both as employees and small business owners and this is where it gets very prickly after the land grabs of the last five decade and particularly the last fifteen years. These issues though have to be resolved or agriculture as a driver of economic and social will never even get to first base, the knowledge and willingness to help is in plentiful supply from overseas countries and the Colombian countryside is very fertile terrain for such a project, the only question is whether the authorities are brave enough to grasp the nettle. Considering the possibilities in the countryside of Colombia we find the farmers on the streets protesting on far too frequent a basis, the workers feel exploited and that needs to change but not all of that can be gifted by the state - flowers are a perfect example where there are far too many small growers who have not organized themselves and therefore all the market power lies with the huge buyer who simply arbitrage between the growers in order to get a better price. CONCLUSION Sadly Colombia is a decade away from getting even close to exploiting the countryside to the extent they should be and that is even with some sort of land reform, if not I will be long since gone before we see any kind of economic critical mass in the rural areas. The good news, perhaps not for the polar bears, is that the world needs ever more food and Colombia is in a position to be a bread basket if the situation is handled correctly. In the meantime I am forced to agree with my old friend Alberto Bernal who stated that oil is going to be a necessary evil for the coming years in Colombia, wouldn't it be great if that didn't have to be the case.