Colombian Update : What's New (s) : Inside-Out, UB40, Argentina, Venezuela, Cobras.

WHITEHALL HERE WE COME

Today sees the opening of the annual Colombia Inside/Out event in London, this year there will be no mad dash to New York this time around, and the great and good of the country will be gathered in Whitehall to look at the prospects for the coming years. Sadly due to a confluence of events I can’t make it but it would have been great to hear what business and economic leaders make of the immediate future given the lukewarm reception thus far for President Duque. It is of course early days but the President already finds his approval level (40%) below that of vanquished election rivals Sergio Fajardo & Gustavo Petro as well as his predecessor Santos who at 49% is at a level not seen in over four years. For many observers it is still unclear as to what to expect with most of the big ticket speeches having been given by FinMin Carrasquilla who is scheduled to appear in London as well, perhaps more concerning is how any changes in taxation etc will be received. The poll presents corruption (30%), economic situation (21%) & security (17%) as the main concerns with 73% believing the employment situation is worsening with a similar attitude towards the economy (64%), corruption (77%) & the cost of living (78%). Clearly there is a lot of work to do in terms of improving the economic situation as well as arguably more importantly getting the message across that Colombia in reality isn’t in full meltdown mode. You could say Colombia is a tad Upside-Down and Inside-Out has the task of putting the story straight, I wish everyone attending very well and good luck with the event.

935,000 That is the official number of Venezuelans who have crossed into Colombia during the Maduro driven economic crisis across the border, of course that is at best a guess due to the numbers who are wading across rivers or hacking their way through the overgrowth to escape the current horrors of their homeland. Our favourite bus driver is of course saying all the media footage is fake news and simply a propaganda campaign - the numbers of his people begging at the traffic lights in Medellin tells a different story. The question is how many is too many especially in light of Ecuador and Peru tightening of the rules and Brazil also looking to restrict the numbers of those crossing the border. The reality is that morally Colombia has little choice but to stay open for business, during 50 years of troubles Venezuela never closed the frontier to victims of the guerrilla groups tearing the countryside to pieces and it would be a shameful situation if those actions were not reciprocated. There has been chatter about unified action amongst the countries receiving the refugees as the problem scales up in a hurry and even talk of bringing charges against Maduro in The Hague but as and when and whether it will make the slightest difference have all to be ascertained, for sure the diplomatic route will get bogged down in bureaucracy. Those looking on are ever more amazed at the survival skills of Maduro in the face of such pressure but if in essence you are feasible striving for your very survival the tendency is to cling on irrespective of the damage being caused. His end will come, we have being saying it forever if course but things are fast approaching the abyss economically and socially so fingers crossed that whilst those suffering are enduring the darkest moments imaginable the dawn is fast approaching. Thought : In the aforementioned Gallup poll 2% of Colombian approve of Maduro as a leader - perhaps that 1,000,000 could be shipped the other way and then net-net there would be no refugee issues. UB40 As we can see above in the Gallup poll the populous in general remain very concerned over unemployment despite the fact that it has come down steadily over the past decade at a time when the working population has been expanding - perhaps some of that pessimism has leaked into the economics departments around Colombia as July's reading of 10.1% (13 Cities) was way below estimates as it fell by 1.2% YoY, an absolute decline of 122,000 to 1.22 million, the key here was a strong job creation number of 320,000. In terms of Total National Unemployment which at 9.7% was the same as 2017 it was a slightly less picturesque situation which arguably points to continued issues in the countryside versus what we saw with the 13 metropolises. Whilst the unemployment situation is far better than Gallup polls suggest there is a challenge ahead in order to change such perceptions, a 10.1% reading may not be perfect but it will not be top of the new Government's to-do list although given time there should be benefits, if correctly structured, from the any reduction in corporation tax. DON'T CRY FOR ME For the last two months Turkey has been on the minds of all emerging market investors but now Argentina has loomed up on everyone and is if anything a far larger concern for Colombia. Whilst rates are justifiably at 4.25% as inflation continues to fall the worry now is the effect that the massive rate hikes in Buenos Aires might have on other part of the region and whether under a worsening scenario the Central Bank might be squeezed into pushing rates upwards to defend a Peso which has already moved well above 3000. Beyond that as well documented already the COLCAP has been becalmed over recent months and with the headlines in Argentina starting to appear in the local press, investors may have just the excuse they need to keep their money in their pockets for a while longer. Today may represent the end of the US summer holidays and the traditional pick up in trading forthwith however unfortunately over recent years that rule of thumb has disappeared - one is starting to wonder when the pick up in activity will occur - 2018 or 2019 ? SERPENTS

Finally for today I would like to personally thank Theresa May for here African visit this past week - having lived in here for 13 years where everyone appears to dance like a cobra emerging from its basket and consequently feeling completely intimidated at the sound of any sort of rhythmic music - I suddenly feel like I am not the worse shape thrower on the planet....