Colombian Update : What's New (s) : Remembrance, Refugees, Politics, El Niño.....

TIME MOVES ON

I think most people knew where they were on that sunny morning, my mum over in the UK certainly did as she got a stream of phone calls asking if I was OK in the early afternoon of September 11 2001 - there was of course no word but fortunately a great colleague of mine Mark Fenton got word to her via a voice mail that all was well - she will never forget those uncomfortable hours and neither should anyone else. There have been years of conflict and 100,000s deaths as a consequence of that fateful day - the domino effect of the actions of a barbaric minority - as the religious world continues to spin off its collective axis this is the perfect day to reflect on the cost of such fanaticism. MIGRATION One of the advantages of being a temporary man of leisure is that instead of being stuck in another unproductive meeting at the bank you can take time to read about things that really matter and overnight on Monday the latest UNESCO report for September into the Venezuelan refugee crisis appeared in my in-box, I had the good fortune to meet these fine people whilst in Cucuta a few months ago and there is work is far from enviable. The overall numbers are bad enough with 2.3mm Venezuelans now living abroad with 1.5m having left to Latam countries since 2015 and amidst that latter group it is estimated that there are 438,000 children in need of assistance, of the 1.5mn UNICEF calculate that 93.75% of them need help. Of that flood just over 81% have found their way to Colombia and within there is a sub-group who have settled just over the border in La Guajira a region that already finds itself struggling in terms of basic services. The numbers are clearly and obviously educated guesses because although they are based on the respective Government numbers in many cases the registration process is voluntary and therefore as the report states “..actual figures are expected to be higher as many have opted not to be part of this exercises”. Within this mass of humanity are 250,000 Colombians who have returned from the land that in many cases was their sanctuary during the decades of Colombia violence but in terms of immigrants per se there was a doubling from 300,000 to 600,000 between July 2017 and January 2018 and whilst that pace has slowed somewhat the Simon Bolivar bridge continues to teem with people, not all stay, some shop, some study and others work however plenty don’t as evidenced by the ad hoc travel agents stood at the end of the bridge offering onward journeys.

Clearly the big question is what can be done about it, other countries have restricted travel but Colombia can’t do that given the historical help offered previously and anyway closing a 2000km land border has its issues, UNESCO have already put in a few million dollars of aid but they still need more and even then it can only ever be a sticking plaster, there needs to a coordinated effort from Central Government before the whole situation gets out of control - the cost involved is inherently manageable however action needs to be taken. Thus far the citizens of Colombia have been a gracious host however that won’t necessarily last if the Government isn’t seen to have a plan and at all costs children need to be protected- as the report states : “Irregular migration is putting children at higher risk of discrimination, violence, xenophobia, exploitation and abuse in destination countries” To be precise 356,756 of them under the age of 18.

THE RIGHT TO BE HEARD As in all good justice systems the presumption of innocence sit above all else and FinMin Carrasquilla launched a lengthy detailed defence of his actions with regards to the 'Water Bonds' accusations that appeared in the press over the weekend - equally as per yesterday I won't get get into the nuts and bolts of either the allegations or the rebuttal - they are serious and the evidence provided in his own defence was substantial. Carrasquilla has welcomed the opportunity to appear in Congress and hopefully the invitation will be accepted as promptly as possible, this is a most unwelcome distraction at a time when he has legislation to draft and the new President is attempting to make good on his anti-corruption manifesto. THE GIRL IS BACK ? Local energy companies will be on watch after the WMO put a 70% probability on the emergence of an El Niño event by the end of 2018, whilst they expect it to be more modest than the record breaking heat of 2015-16 nonetheless there will be some anxiety in Colombia. This is a country heavily reliant on hydro power (70%+) and if those reservoir levels start to drop as they did in such dramatic fashion last time around the energy companies will have to look at alternative more costly options in order to supply the agreed Government contracts. On top of this there will be concerns over the agricultural sector and the supply of goods to the markets, the countryside is still an unsophisticated place and contingencies in terms of water supplies are lacking. Colombia has VERY belatedly started to look at alternative energy however whilst it would be perfect to have enough solar panels to capitalize on the ample sunshine on offer we are still many years away from having enough farms to hedge the country’s energy supply when the rains fail.

SPIDERMAN Amid reports of disgruntled ex-employees trying to break back into the building for yet another committee meeting or perhaps someone lost on the way to the NPL department Russian Spiderman Pavel Gogulan managed to scale the 12 floors of the Bancolombia HQ yesterday having been denied by security a week ago - he clearly likes the financial sector as he had a pop at parent company Grupo Sura's building earlier on - curiously there is in fact a giant spiderman statue sat in the park to the south of the building.